Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FedEx Corporation (FDX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$407.36 - $1,109.22$627.88
Multi-Stage$279.44 - $305.18$292.08
Blended Fair Value$459.98
Current Price$231.07
Upside99.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.55%19.42%5.535.204.863.272.832.802.822.211.761.14
YoY Growth--6.35%6.97%48.42%15.60%1.03%-0.59%27.66%25.59%53.79%22.03%
Dividend Yield--2.39%1.74%1.86%1.55%1.07%1.27%1.78%0.91%0.82%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,122.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,345.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,777.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.40515.25309.15
Cash Retained (M)2,777.002,777.002,777.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.40-515.25-309.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,952.602,261.752,467.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.25242.25242.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.069.3410.19
LTM Dividend per Share5.555.555.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.069.3410.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.6114.8915.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$407.36$627.88$1,109.22
Upside / Downside76.29%171.73%380.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,122.004,389.934,675.284,979.175,302.815,647.505,816.92
Payout Ratio32.63%44.10%55.58%67.05%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,345.001,936.132,598.423,338.634,164.095,082.755,380.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,759.181,775.851,792.52
Year 2 PV (M)2,145.162,186.022,227.26
Year 3 PV (M)2,504.342,576.232,649.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,838.052,947.203,059.46
Year 5 PV (M)3,147.573,299.593,457.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,300.2957,971.3160,744.56
Equity Value (M)67,694.5970,756.2173,930.74
Shares Outstanding (M)242.25242.25242.25
Fair Value$279.44$292.08$305.18
Upside / Downside20.93%26.40%32.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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