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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk (BJBR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,230.02 - $2,138.72$1,619.24
Multi-Stage$2,017.18 - $2,209.42$2,111.49
Blended Fair Value$1,865.36
Current Price$765.00
Upside143.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.60%2.82%95.05104.5599.1189.5387.9283.6083.2282.0278.1565.98
YoY Growth---9.09%5.49%10.70%1.83%5.17%0.46%1.46%4.95%18.44%-8.32%
Dividend Yield--11.45%8.64%7.29%5.87%6.06%11.41%4.13%3.99%3.88%6.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)997,156.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)896,953.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)100,203.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)199,431.20124,644.5074,786.70
Cash Retained (M)100,203.00100,203.00100,203.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-199,431.20-124,644.50-74,786.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-99,228.20-24,441.5025,416.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,521.4410,521.4410,521.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.43-2.322.42
LTM Dividend per Share85.2585.2585.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.43-2.322.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend75.8282.9387.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$1,230.02$1,619.24$2,138.72
Upside / Downside60.79%111.66%179.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)997,156.001,015,303.171,033,780.591,052,594.281,071,750.361,091,255.071,123,992.72
Payout Ratio89.95%89.96%89.97%89.98%89.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)896,953.00913,375.83930,099.35947,129.06964,470.56982,129.561,039,693.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)844,966.49853,347.44861,728.39
Year 2 PV (M)795,993.05811,861.76827,887.09
Year 3 PV (M)749,858.06772,392.91795,374.77
Year 4 PV (M)706,397.00734,842.83764,139.25
Year 5 PV (M)665,454.90699,118.26734,130.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,461,016.4118,344,316.7819,263,007.68
Equity Value (M)21,223,685.9122,215,879.9723,246,267.57
Shares Outstanding (M)10,521.4410,521.4410,521.44
Fair Value$2,017.18$2,111.49$2,209.42
Upside / Downside163.68%176.01%188.81%

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