Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.75 - $39.28$33.45
Multi-Stage$53.50 - $58.84$56.12
Blended Fair Value$44.78
Current Price$31.78
Upside40.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS1.58%6.42%1.801.881.832.071.661.671.591.471.321.08
YoY Growth---4.11%2.95%-11.60%24.72%-0.64%5.18%8.17%10.82%22.70%11.35%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.26%3.42%4.84%4.37%4.40%4.18%3.86%3.49%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.9979.9948.00
Cash Retained (M)375.83375.83375.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.99-79.99-48.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.84295.83327.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.804.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Fair Value$27.75$33.45$39.28
Upside / Downside-12.67%5.25%23.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.95622.63605.78589.38573.43557.91574.65
Payout Ratio41.27%51.02%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.12317.65368.09415.57460.21502.12531.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)290.19293.21296.22
Year 2 PV (M)307.20313.61320.09
Year 3 PV (M)316.84326.81336.99
Year 4 PV (M)320.54334.06348.01
Year 5 PV (M)319.50336.44354.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,336.016,671.917,021.90
Equity Value (M)7,890.288,276.048,677.30
Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
Fair Value$53.50$56.12$58.84
Upside / Downside68.35%76.58%85.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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