Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited (603043.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.68 - $69.51$36.17
Multi-Stage$15.49 - $16.90$16.18
Blended Fair Value$26.18
Current Price$16.13
Upside62.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.10%7.98%0.500.430.420.280.220.280.250.340.310.14
YoY Growth--16.39%4.01%48.55%28.06%-23.13%14.29%-27.38%10.00%122.22%-40.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.43%1.41%1.35%0.81%1.44%1.15%2.63%2.30%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)495.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)208.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.0561.9137.14
Cash Retained (M)208.90208.90208.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.05-61.91-37.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.85146.99171.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.68$36.17$69.51
Upside / Downside40.59%124.26%330.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)495.26527.45561.73598.25637.13678.55698.90
Payout Ratio57.82%64.26%70.69%77.13%83.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.36338.92397.10461.42532.41610.69646.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.73311.65314.58
Year 2 PV (M)329.50335.78342.11
Year 3 PV (M)348.76358.77368.97
Year 4 PV (M)366.58380.67395.17
Year 5 PV (M)383.01401.51420.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,053.007,393.667,747.36
Equity Value (M)8,789.589,182.069,588.93
Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
Fair Value$15.49$16.18$16.90
Upside / Downside-3.96%0.33%4.78%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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