Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. (601456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.41 - $57.75$21.86
Multi-Stage$7.87 - $8.59$8.23
Blended Fair Value$15.05
Current Price$11.17
Upside34.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.42%20.95%0.090.170.060.060.000.020.000.060.170.02
YoY Growth---47.33%169.59%-0.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.00%624.72%75.00%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.50%0.60%0.48%0.00%0.35%0.00%0.97%2.77%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,764.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,212.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)552.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.86220.54132.32
Cash Retained (M)552.07552.07552.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.86-220.54-132.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.21331.53419.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.41$21.86$57.75
Upside / Downside11.08%95.73%416.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,764.301,878.982,001.122,131.192,269.722,417.252,489.77
Payout Ratio68.71%72.97%77.23%81.48%85.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,212.241,371.041,545.371,736.571,946.102,175.522,303.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,255.501,267.401,279.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,295.871,320.551,345.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,333.481,371.761,410.76
Year 4 PV (M)1,368.431,421.061,475.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,400.831,468.491,538.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,640.0130,023.3431,459.60
Equity Value (M)35,294.1236,872.5938,509.06
Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
Fair Value$7.87$8.23$8.59
Upside / Downside-29.50%-26.35%-23.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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