Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. (601328.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.79 - $242.90$192.55
Multi-Stage$31.70 - $34.60$33.13
Blended Fair Value$112.84
Current Price$6.72
Upside1,579.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.55%10.41%0.670.650.630.570.360.450.310.410.320.26
YoY Growth--3.56%2.96%9.97%60.17%-19.76%45.18%-25.61%28.74%24.21%3.49%
Dividend Yield--9.02%10.01%12.33%11.21%7.22%8.64%4.86%6.67%5.14%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,890.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87,512.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,378.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,978.0011,861.257,116.75
Cash Retained (M)7,378.007,378.007,378.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,978.00-11,861.25-7,116.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11,600.00-4,483.25261.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.79$192.55$242.90
Upside / Downside864.08%2,765.26%3,514.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,890.00101,057.85107,626.61114,622.34122,072.79130,007.52133,907.75
Payout Ratio92.22%91.78%91.33%90.89%90.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87,512.0092,750.6498,300.56104,180.10110,408.66117,006.77123,864.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85,795.8686,609.0987,422.32
Year 2 PV (M)84,111.4085,713.4987,330.69
Year 3 PV (M)82,458.0684,825.1387,237.08
Year 4 PV (M)80,835.2783,943.9787,141.48
Year 5 PV (M)79,242.5183,069.9587,043.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,050,471.712,149,510.262,252,339.25
Equity Value (M)2,462,914.812,573,671.892,688,514.70
Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
Fair Value$31.70$33.13$34.60
Upside / Downside371.74%392.95%414.95%

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