Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. (600559.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.30 - $28.52$18.96
Multi-Stage$10.27 - $11.19$10.72
Blended Fair Value$14.84
Current Price$17.20
Upside-13.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.44%34.62%0.450.300.160.230.150.150.110.070.060.05
YoY Growth--49.44%95.12%-32.46%58.76%-0.66%30.84%57.69%13.13%23.72%117.90%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.55%0.42%1.15%0.69%1.72%0.76%0.53%0.50%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)631.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.2378.8947.34
Cash Retained (M)224.86224.86224.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.23-78.89-47.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.63145.97177.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.30$18.96$28.52
Upside / Downside-22.67%10.21%65.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)631.14672.16715.86762.39811.94864.72890.66
Payout Ratio64.37%69.50%74.62%79.75%84.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.28467.14534.19607.99689.13778.25823.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)420.92424.91428.90
Year 2 PV (M)433.71441.97450.31
Year 3 PV (M)444.79457.55470.56
Year 4 PV (M)454.26471.73489.70
Year 5 PV (M)462.24484.57507.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,051.827,392.427,746.07
Equity Value (M)9,267.739,673.1510,093.28
Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
Fair Value$10.27$10.72$11.19
Upside / Downside-40.27%-37.66%-34.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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