Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (600332.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$310.05 - $365.29$342.33
Multi-Stage$85.03 - $93.15$89.01
Blended Fair Value$215.67
Current Price$25.55
Upside744.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.57%18.57%1.380.970.920.780.790.640.540.290.320.25
YoY Growth--41.98%6.35%17.73%-1.85%23.36%20.12%87.77%-9.53%27.72%-2.10%
Dividend Yield--5.23%3.34%2.77%2.48%2.85%2.04%1.35%0.94%1.11%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,986.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,509.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,477.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)597.31373.32223.99
Cash Retained (M)1,477.541,477.541,477.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-597.31-373.32-223.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)880.221,104.221,253.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$310.05$342.33$365.29
Upside / Downside1,113.48%1,239.83%1,329.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,986.573,180.703,387.443,607.633,842.124,091.864,214.62
Payout Ratio50.53%58.42%66.32%74.21%82.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,509.031,858.222,246.432,677.253,154.593,682.683,898.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,748.721,765.291,781.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,989.472,027.372,065.62
Year 3 PV (M)2,231.292,295.352,360.61
Year 4 PV (M)2,474.192,569.342,667.21
Year 5 PV (M)2,718.172,849.452,985.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)127,090.55133,229.07139,602.53
Equity Value (M)138,252.39144,735.88151,463.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
Fair Value$85.03$89.01$93.15
Upside / Downside232.78%248.39%264.58%

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