Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tosoh Corporation (4042.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,217.51 - $25,003.49$23,429.30
Multi-Stage$44,521.25 - $48,922.38$46,680.19
Blended Fair Value$35,054.75
Current Price$2,189.50
Upside1,501.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.71%20.22%95.0480.0189.9761.9856.5757.1561.2258.1229.5523.68
YoY Growth--18.79%-11.06%45.15%9.57%-1.02%-6.66%5.34%96.67%24.82%57.07%
Dividend Yield--4.50%3.81%5.30%3.68%2.95%3.89%3.94%3.38%1.28%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,911.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,087.805,054.883,032.93
Cash Retained (M)8,528.008,528.008,528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,087.80-5,054.88-3,032.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.203,473.135,495.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
LTM Dividend per Share100.40100.40100.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.33117.69
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Fair Value$21,217.51$23,429.30$25,003.49
Upside / Downside869.06%970.08%1,041.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,439.0042,553.6644,778.9147,120.5249,584.5752,177.4853,742.81
Payout Ratio78.91%81.13%83.35%85.56%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,911.0034,523.4337,321.8240,318.4743,526.4746,959.7349,712.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Year 1 PV (M)42,313.8942,719.8643,125.82
Year 2 PV (M)56,066.1557,147.1458,238.45
Year 3 PV (M)74,235.4076,392.6678,591.31
Year 4 PV (M)98,226.68102,050.92105,985.75
Year 5 PV (M)129,888.47136,240.09142,837.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,750,138.0714,422,527.2315,120,967.00
Equity Value (M)14,150,868.6614,837,077.8915,549,746.12
Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
Fair Value$44,521.25$46,680.19$48,922.38
Upside / Downside1,933.40%2,032.00%2,134.41%

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