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Definitive Analysis

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AEON REIT Investment Corporation (3292.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$250,491.45 - $557,846.20$361,790.24
Multi-Stage$316,476.31 - $346,353.05$331,136.23
Blended Fair Value$346,463.24
Current Price$125,400.00
Upside176.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.56%11.55%6,586.686,711.826,323.466,392.885,523.975,270.755,048.744,798.632,761.642,835.21
YoY Growth---1.86%6.14%-1.09%15.73%4.80%4.40%5.21%73.76%-2.59%28.37%
Dividend Yield--5.25%4.83%4.22%4.14%3.36%4.61%3.61%3.76%2.23%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,496.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,430.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,065.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,499.313,437.072,062.24
Cash Retained (M)3,065.763,065.763,065.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,499.31-3,437.07-2,062.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,433.55-371.311,003.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.122.122.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,148.15-175.18473.46
LTM Dividend per Share11,526.4311,526.4311,526.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,148.15-175.18473.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,378.2811,351.2511,999.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Fair Value$250,491.45$361,790.24$557,846.20
Upside / Downside99.75%188.51%344.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,496.5528,474.9729,488.2230,537.5231,624.1532,749.4633,731.94
Payout Ratio88.85%89.08%89.31%89.54%89.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,430.7925,365.5926,335.9927,343.3428,389.0329,474.5131,202.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Year 1 PV (M)23,519.5523,748.8823,978.21
Year 2 PV (M)22,642.1523,085.8523,533.86
Year 3 PV (M)21,797.3422,441.1923,097.59
Year 4 PV (M)20,983.9221,814.3822,669.26
Year 5 PV (M)20,200.7121,204.9522,248.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)561,641.95589,562.73618,583.05
Equity Value (M)670,785.63701,857.99734,110.69
Shares Outstanding (M)2.122.122.12
Fair Value$316,476.31$331,136.23$346,353.05
Upside / Downside152.37%164.06%176.20%

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