Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yamama Saudi Cement Company (3020.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.65 - $410.16$128.23
Multi-Stage$53.36 - $58.40$55.83
Blended Fair Value$92.03
Current Price$31.74
Upside189.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.40%-12.35%0.991.000.000.010.490.030.000.251.462.95
YoY Growth---1.48%43,068.53%-67.10%-98.54%1,785.27%0.00%-100.00%-82.61%-50.54%-20.11%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.04%0.01%0.02%1.46%0.14%0.00%1.59%8.00%10.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4152.7631.66
Cash Retained (M)207.98207.98207.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.41-52.76-31.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.57155.23176.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$69.65$128.23$410.16
Upside / Downside119.44%304.00%1,192.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.07444.54468.21493.13519.39547.04563.45
Payout Ratio50.72%58.58%66.43%74.29%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.09260.40311.05366.34426.65492.33521.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)241.46243.77246.09
Year 2 PV (M)267.43272.59277.79
Year 3 PV (M)292.06300.54309.18
Year 4 PV (M)315.39327.66340.28
Year 5 PV (M)337.47353.96371.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,346.149,802.7510,277.03
Equity Value (M)10,799.9511,301.2611,821.45
Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
Fair Value$53.36$55.83$58.40
Upside / Downside68.11%75.91%84.01%

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