Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinshang Bank Co., Ltd. (2558.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.19 - $16.69$12.31
Multi-Stage$13.41 - $14.72$14.05
Blended Fair Value$13.18
Current Price$1.32
Upside898.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.95%7.57%0.100.110.100.100.120.080.080.050.050.04
YoY Growth---2.43%6.45%-3.89%-14.74%56.89%-3.11%48.70%5.89%25.42%-18.83%
Dividend Yield--7.61%8.63%10.37%8.57%8.44%5.53%2.37%1.68%1.47%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,776.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,175.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,600.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)755.25472.03283.22
Cash Retained (M)2,600.302,600.302,600.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-755.25-472.03-283.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,845.052,128.272,317.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,838.655,838.655,838.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$9.19$12.31$16.69
Upside / Downside596.34%832.65%1,164.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,776.233,864.233,954.294,046.444,140.744,237.244,364.36
Payout Ratio31.14%42.91%54.68%66.46%78.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,175.931,658.232,162.372,689.113,239.223,813.524,037.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)1,534.101,549.241,564.38
Year 2 PV (M)1,850.771,887.481,924.55
Year 3 PV (M)2,129.322,192.992,257.91
Year 4 PV (M)2,372.942,468.002,565.90
Year 5 PV (M)2,584.532,714.612,849.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,815.3571,228.3074,777.29
Equity Value (M)78,287.0282,040.6285,939.90
Shares Outstanding (M)5,838.655,838.655,838.65
Fair Value$13.41$14.05$14.72
Upside / Downside915.79%964.49%1,015.09%

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