Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (0968.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.65 - $102.48$69.03
Multi-Stage$12.82 - $14.00$13.40
Blended Fair Value$41.22
Current Price$2.27
Upside1,715.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.38%23.76%0.190.170.200.230.050.070.070.120.090.05
YoY Growth--8.14%-12.43%-12.28%357.08%-30.62%-0.20%-38.34%23.20%94.25%117.27%
Dividend Yield--5.98%3.81%2.30%1.71%0.24%1.29%2.60%3.79%3.76%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,621.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,242.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,378.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)924.20577.63346.58
Cash Retained (M)1,378.151,378.151,378.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-924.20-577.63-346.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.94800.521,031.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,967.678,967.678,967.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.65$69.03$102.48
Upside / Downside1,029.93%2,941.09%4,414.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,621.024,921.395,241.285,581.965,944.796,331.206,521.14
Payout Ratio70.18%74.14%78.11%82.07%86.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,242.883,648.784,093.754,581.155,114.625,698.086,032.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,371.893,403.853,435.81
Year 2 PV (M)3,496.013,562.603,629.82
Year 3 PV (M)3,615.373,719.153,824.90
Year 4 PV (M)3,730.073,873.524,021.06
Year 5 PV (M)3,840.244,025.724,218.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)96,894.77101,574.82106,433.99
Equity Value (M)114,948.35120,159.67125,563.90
Shares Outstanding (M)8,967.678,967.678,967.67
Fair Value$12.82$13.40$14.00
Upside / Downside464.67%490.27%516.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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