Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ILJIN Holdings Co., Ltd. (015860.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152,005.81 - $179,088.60$167,832.25
Multi-Stage$102,007.67 - $111,920.78$106,871.78
Blended Fair Value$137,352.01
Current Price$5,460.00
Upside2,415.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.24%12.91%272.61241.39246.40100.03146.2770.0251.3060.19111.81109.04
YoY Growth--12.93%-2.03%146.32%-31.61%108.89%36.49%-14.77%-46.17%2.54%34.66%
Dividend Yield--7.69%5.47%5.42%1.99%2.91%2.53%1.41%1.19%2.31%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41,397.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,774.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,623.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,279.595,174.743,104.85
Cash Retained (M)19,623.5919,623.5919,623.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,279.59-5,174.74-3,104.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,344.0014,448.8416,518.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.9745.9745.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share246.76314.30359.32
LTM Dividend per Share473.65473.65473.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share246.76314.30359.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend720.41787.94832.97
WACC / Discount Rate2.66%2.66%2.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$152,005.81$167,832.25$179,088.60
Upside / Downside2,683.99%2,973.85%3,180.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41,397.9544,088.8146,954.5950,006.6353,257.0656,718.7758,420.34
Payout Ratio52.60%60.08%67.56%75.04%82.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,774.3626,487.7431,721.8637,524.5143,947.4851,046.9054,038.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.66%2.66%2.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25,558.1325,800.3926,042.64
Year 2 PV (M)29,534.3230,096.8730,664.72
Year 3 PV (M)33,710.6834,678.3935,664.45
Year 4 PV (M)38,095.2339,560.2741,067.16
Year 5 PV (M)42,696.2944,758.5446,899.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,519,876.564,738,188.294,964,855.32
Equity Value (M)4,689,471.214,913,082.745,145,194.00
Shares Outstanding (M)45.9745.9745.97
Fair Value$102,007.67$106,871.78$111,920.78
Upside / Downside1,768.27%1,857.36%1,949.83%

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