DDM Analysis: NTB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$160.65 - $676.93	$277.24
Multi-Stage	$100.13 - $109.43	$104.70
Blended Fair Value	$190.97
Current Price	$42.90
Upside	345.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.20%	11.24%	1.85	2.00	2.03	2.03	2.06	2.17	1.94	1.62	0.45	0.58
YoY Growth	-	-	-7.66%	-1.32%	0.07%	-1.85%	-5.02%	11.87%	20.04%	260.44%	-22.14%	-9.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.74%	6.29%	7.51%	5.64%	5.40%	12.76%	5.29%	3.71%	1.41%	2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	227.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	151.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	45.55	28.47	17.08
Cash Retained (M)	151.69	151.69	151.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-45.55	-28.47	-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	106.14	123.22	134.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	43.10	43.10	43.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.86	3.12
LTM Dividend per Share	1.77	1.77	1.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.86	3.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.23	4.62	4.89
WACC / Discount Rate	8.28%	8.28%	8.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$160.65	$277.24	$676.93
Upside / Downside	274.48%	546.25%	1,477.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	227.77	242.57	258.34	275.13	293.01	312.06	321.42
Payout Ratio	33.40%	44.72%	56.04%	67.36%	78.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.08	108.48	144.77	185.33	230.54	280.85	297.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.28%	8.28%	8.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	99.25	100.19	101.13
Year 2 PV (M)	121.18	123.49	125.82
Year 3 PV (M)	141.92	146.00	150.15
Year 4 PV (M)	161.52	167.73	174.12
Year 5 PV (M)	180.02	188.72	197.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,611.92	3,786.37	3,967.51
Equity Value (M)	4,315.81	4,512.50	4,716.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	43.10	43.10	43.10
Fair Value	$100.13	$104.70	$109.43
Upside / Downside	133.41%	144.05%	155.08%

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Financial Statements

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The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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