DDM Analysis: HTSC.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$120.25 - $389.30	$364.83
Multi-Stage	$52.79 - $57.69	$55.19
Blended Fair Value	$210.01
Current Price	$157.59
Upside	33.26%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.99%	21.86%	1.43	1.68	1.16	0.40	0.30	0.68	0.80	0.81	0.85	0.57
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.79%	44.81%	187.89%	33.73%	-55.80%	-14.45%	-1.38%	-4.91%	48.91%	187.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.89%	1.05%	0.84%	0.27%	0.17%	0.40%	0.56%	0.60%	0.58%	0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	17,589.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12,074.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,514.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,517.98	2,198.74	1,319.24
Cash Retained (M)	5,514.94	5,514.94	5,514.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,517.98	-2,198.74	-1,319.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,996.96	3,316.20	4,195.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,985.93	8,985.93	8,985.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.37	0.47
LTM Dividend per Share	1.34	1.34	1.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.37	0.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.57	1.71	1.81
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$120.25	$364.83	$389.30
Upside / Downside	-23.69%	131.50%	147.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	17,589.91	18,733.25	19,950.91	21,247.72	22,628.82	24,099.69	24,822.69
Payout Ratio	68.65%	72.92%	77.19%	81.46%	85.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12,074.96	13,659.85	15,399.76	17,308.15	19,399.56	21,689.73	22,960.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	12,661.27	12,781.29	12,901.30
Year 2 PV (M)	13,230.52	13,482.52	13,736.90
Year 3 PV (M)	13,783.03	14,178.69	14,581.85
Year 4 PV (M)	14,319.15	14,869.83	15,436.23
Year 5 PV (M)	14,839.21	15,555.95	16,300.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	405,511.97	425,098.35	445,434.35
Equity Value (M)	474,345.16	495,966.63	518,390.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,985.93	8,985.93	8,985.93
Fair Value	$52.79	$55.19	$57.69
Upside / Downside	-66.50%	-64.98%	-63.39%

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Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. (HTSC.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener