Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

H. Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.40 - $93.04$69.56
Multi-Stage$70.49 - $77.35$73.86
Blended Fair Value$71.71
Current Price$45.54
Upside57.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.87%2.47%0.700.580.400.500.822.401.600.490.000.00
YoY Growth--20.49%45.09%-20.12%-39.02%-65.81%50.03%228.99%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.01%1.75%1.26%1.54%2.53%7.39%4.93%1.50%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,809.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)943.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,866.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)761.80476.13285.68
Cash Retained (M)2,866.002,866.002,866.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-761.80-476.13-285.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,104.202,389.882,580.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.073.363.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$52.40$69.56$93.04
Upside / Downside15.06%52.75%104.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,809.003,908.174,009.924,114.334,221.454,331.364,461.30
Payout Ratio24.76%37.81%50.85%63.90%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)943.001,477.512,039.222,629.173,248.473,898.224,126.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)1,360.331,373.721,387.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,728.581,762.781,797.31
Year 3 PV (M)2,051.912,113.102,175.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,334.162,427.422,523.45
Year 5 PV (M)2,578.892,708.332,842.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,926.7562,934.4266,061.66
Equity Value (M)69,980.6473,319.7776,787.91
Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
Fair Value$70.49$73.86$77.35
Upside / Downside54.79%62.18%69.85%

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