DDM Analysis: FAST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$28.00 - $87.59	$44.92
Multi-Stage	$20.09 - $21.90	$20.98
Blended Fair Value	$32.95
Current Price	$49.04
Upside	-32.82%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.37%	11.66%	0.78	0.88	0.62	0.56	0.70	0.43	0.38	0.32	0.30	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	-12.15%	42.95%	10.50%	-19.88%	61.13%	12.83%	19.72%	6.49%	5.96%	10.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.00%	2.31%	2.29%	1.88%	2.78%	2.77%	2.34%	2.35%	2.34%	2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,226.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	975.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	251.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	245.32	153.33	92.00
Cash Retained (M)	251.50	251.50	251.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-245.32	-153.33	-92.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.18	98.18	159.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,149.95	1,149.95	1,149.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.09	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.85	0.85	0.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.09	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.93	0.99
WACC / Discount Rate	8.50%	8.50%	8.50%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Fair Value	$28.00	$44.92	$87.59
Upside / Downside	-42.90%	-8.40%	78.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,226.60	1,303.76	1,385.76	1,472.93	1,565.58	1,664.06	1,713.98
Payout Ratio	79.50%	81.60%	83.70%	85.80%	87.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	975.10	1,063.82	1,159.85	1,263.75	1,376.13	1,497.65	1,585.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.50%	8.50%	8.50%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	971.27	980.50	989.72
Year 2 PV (M)	966.81	985.27	1,003.89
Year 3 PV (M)	961.77	989.44	1,017.63
Year 4 PV (M)	956.18	993.03	1,030.93
Year 5 PV (M)	950.08	996.07	1,043.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,291.04	19,176.30	20,095.51
Equity Value (M)	23,097.17	24,120.59	25,181.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,149.95	1,149.95	1,149.95
Fair Value	$20.09	$20.98	$21.90
Upside / Downside	-59.04%	-57.23%	-55.35%

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Fastenal Company (FAST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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