DDM Analysis: EME

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$543.97 - $1,334.99	$811.59
Multi-Stage	$371.77 - $406.61	$388.87
Blended Fair Value	$600.23
Current Price	$649.54
Upside	-7.59%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.30%	7.38%	0.95	0.72	0.60	0.62	0.39	0.39	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44
YoY Growth	-	-	32.74%	20.22%	-3.47%	59.35%	-1.54%	-3.70%	-1.74%	-2.48%	-3.19%	-5.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.26%	0.20%	0.37%	0.55%	0.35%	0.64%	0.55%	0.53%	0.68%	0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,130.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,085.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	226.07	141.30	84.78
Cash Retained (M)	1,085.04	1,085.04	1,085.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-226.07	-141.30	-84.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	858.96	943.74	1,000.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	45.59	45.59	45.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	18.84	20.70	21.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.99	0.99	0.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	18.84	20.70	21.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	19.83	21.69	22.93
WACC / Discount Rate	9.35%	9.35%	9.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$543.97	$811.59	$1,334.99
Upside / Downside	-16.25%	24.95%	105.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,130.37	1,203.85	1,282.10	1,365.43	1,454.18	1,548.71	1,595.17
Payout Ratio	4.01%	21.21%	38.41%	55.60%	72.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.33	255.31	492.40	759.24	1,058.68	1,393.84	1,475.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.35%	9.35%	9.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	231.30	233.49	235.68
Year 2 PV (M)	404.13	411.82	419.59
Year 3 PV (M)	564.51	580.71	597.22
Year 4 PV (M)	713.10	740.53	768.74
Year 5 PV (M)	850.55	891.63	934.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,187.00	14,872.23	15,583.70
Equity Value (M)	16,950.58	17,730.42	18,539.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	45.59	45.59	45.59
Fair Value	$371.77	$388.87	$406.61
Upside / Downside	-42.76%	-40.13%	-37.40%

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3109.T	Shikibo Ltd.	2.19%	$22.89	30.55%
3679.T	ZIGExN Co., Ltd.	2.19%	$10.55	26.56%
4516.T	Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd.	2.19%	$123.87	26.14%
4617.T	Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd.	2.19%	$96.72	42.42%
600051.SS	Ningbo United Group Co.,Ltd.	2.19%	$0.17	55.08%
603799.SS	Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd	2.19%	$1.49	48.01%
7233.KL	Dufu Technology Corp. Berhad	2.19%	$0.04	95.65%
9064.T	Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.19%	$48.33	36.15%
9948.T	ARCS Company Limited	2.19%	$74.01	33.92%
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000153.SZ	Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.	2.18%	$0.14	55.80%
002237.SZ	Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd.	2.18%	$0.29	61.47%
002626.SZ	Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company	2.18%	$0.43	54.26%
2468.TW	Fortune Information Systems Corp	2.18%	$0.90	78.36%
300815.SZ	EIT Environmental Development Group Co.,Ltd	2.18%	$0.50	38.67%
300910.SZ	Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co., Ltd	2.18%	$1.23	45.00%
4908.TWO	APAC Opto Electronics Inc.	2.18%	$1.74	72.09%
601369.SS	Xi'an Shaangu Power Co., Ltd.	2.18%	$0.22	37.55%
067160.KQ	Soop Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$1,492.25	15.52%
3898.HK	Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$0.83	29.19%
4507.T	Shionogi & Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$61.65	30.72%
603383.SS	Fujian Apex Software Co.,LTD	2.17%	$0.78	83.82%
603568.SS	Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$0.55	34.14%
7181.T	Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$102.13	24.56%
053800.KQ	AhnLab, Inc.	2.16%	$1,304.40	28.50%
0QI9.L	Creades AB	2.16%	$1.59	16.64%
601233.SS	Tongkun Group Co., Ltd.	2.16%	$0.37	50.52%
605056.SS	Xianheng International Science&Technology Co., Ltd.	2.16%	$0.36	57.45%
MGIC	Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.	2.16%	$0.56	69.02%
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3727.T	Aplix Corporation	2.15%	$3.44	54.78%
603586.SS	Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd	2.15%	$0.41	51.17%
6268.T	Nabtesco Corporation	2.15%	$80.74	60.45%
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BPAN4.SA	Banco Pan S.A.	2.15%	$0.24	41.77%
NCM.AX	Newcrest Mining Limited	2.15%	$0.50	38.39%
PARAUCO.SN	Parque Arauco S.A.	2.15%	$62.73	42.33%
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VZUG.SW	V-ZUG Holding AG	2.15%	$0.91	19.03%
WTIF.SG	WisdomTree Japan Equity UCITS ETF	2.15%	$0.98	91.42%
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300482.SZ	Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.,Ltd	2.14%	$0.42	74.45%
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Financial Statements

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Sector

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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