DDM Analysis: DVN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$95.73 - $239.88	$143.79
Multi-Stage	$66.51 - $72.66	$69.53
Blended Fair Value	$106.66
Current Price	$35.06
Upside	204.22%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	46.26%	9.27%	1.48	2.93	5.32	2.07	0.40	0.22	0.23	0.20	0.35	0.62
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.57%	-45.01%	156.96%	411.67%	83.57%	-6.04%	17.32%	-42.53%	-44.19%	2.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.95%	5.74%	10.51%	3.50%	1.85%	3.19%	0.74%	0.63%	0.83%	2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,106.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	543.80	339.88	203.93
Cash Retained (M)	2,106.00	2,106.00	2,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-543.80	-339.88	-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,562.20	1,766.13	1,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	635.00	635.00	635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.78	3.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.97	0.97	0.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.78	3.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.43	3.75	3.96
WACC / Discount Rate	9.27%	9.27%	9.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$95.73	$143.79	$239.88
Upside / Downside	173.06%	310.13%	584.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,719.00	2,895.74	3,083.96	3,284.42	3,497.90	3,725.27	3,837.02
Payout Ratio	22.55%	36.04%	49.53%	63.02%	76.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	613.00	1,043.51	1,527.39	2,069.77	2,676.21	3,352.74	3,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.27%	9.27%	9.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	945.97	954.94	963.90
Year 2 PV (M)	1,255.21	1,279.11	1,303.25
Year 3 PV (M)	1,541.95	1,586.21	1,631.31
Year 4 PV (M)	1,807.38	1,876.88	1,948.38
Year 5 PV (M)	2,052.63	2,151.77	2,254.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	34,628.69	36,301.27	38,037.86
Equity Value (M)	42,231.82	44,150.19	46,139.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	635.00	635.00	635.00
Fair Value	$66.51	$69.53	$72.66
Upside / Downside	89.69%	98.31%	107.25%

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Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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