DDM Analysis: DDS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$647.51 - $1,306.41	$902.72
Multi-Stage	$517.60 - $563.23	$540.01
Blended Fair Value	$721.37
Current Price	$600.08
Upside	20.21%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	104.68%	44.58%	26.27	21.50	17.23	19.38	0.89	0.73	0.71	0.60	0.62	0.64
YoY Growth	-	-	22.20%	24.81%	-11.11%	2,084.03%	21.32%	3.71%	17.87%	-3.71%	-2.21%	-3.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.23%	4.95%	5.77%	6.38%	0.90%	2.58%	1.03%	0.82%	1.12%	0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	580.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	413.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	167.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	116.17	72.61	43.56
Cash Retained (M)	167.44	167.44	167.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-116.17	-72.61	-43.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	51.26	94.83	123.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.75	15.75	15.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.25	6.02	7.86
LTM Dividend per Share	26.25	26.25	26.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.25	6.02	7.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend	29.50	32.27	34.11
WACC / Discount Rate	10.31%	10.31%	10.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$647.51	$902.72	$1,306.41
Upside / Downside	7.90%	50.43%	117.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	580.86	618.61	658.82	701.65	747.26	795.83	819.70
Payout Ratio	71.17%	74.94%	78.70%	82.47%	86.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	413.42	463.59	518.53	578.65	644.39	716.24	758.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.31%	10.31%	10.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	416.32	420.27	424.22
Year 2 PV (M)	418.19	426.15	434.19
Year 3 PV (M)	419.09	431.13	443.38
Year 4 PV (M)	419.13	435.25	451.83
Year 5 PV (M)	418.37	438.57	459.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,061.06	6,353.81	6,657.77
Equity Value (M)	8,152.16	8,505.18	8,870.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.75	15.75	15.75
Fair Value	$517.60	$540.01	$563.23
Upside / Downside	-13.75%	-10.01%	-6.14%

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Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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