DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$174.20 - $630.39	$551.36
Multi-Stage	$82.13 - $89.73	$85.86
Blended Fair Value	$318.61
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	616.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$174.20	$551.36	$630.39
Upside / Downside	291.55%	1,139.29%	1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,930.13	4,976.86	5,023.60
Year 2 PV (M)	5,099.26	5,196.39	5,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)	5,262.52	5,413.59	5,567.52
Year 4 PV (M)	5,420.05	5,628.49	5,842.88
Year 5 PV (M)	5,571.97	5,841.10	6,120.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,158.13	153,217.63	160,547.30
Equity Value (M)	172,442.08	180,274.06	188,396.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$82.13	$85.86	$89.73
Upside / Downside	84.61%	93.00%	101.69%

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603799.SS	Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd	2.19%	$1.49	48.01%
7233.KL	Dufu Technology Corp. Berhad	2.19%	$0.04	95.65%
9064.T	Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.19%	$48.33	36.15%
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002626.SZ	Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company	2.18%	$0.43	54.26%
2468.TW	Fortune Information Systems Corp	2.18%	$0.90	78.36%
300815.SZ	EIT Environmental Development Group Co.,Ltd	2.18%	$0.50	38.67%
300910.SZ	Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co., Ltd	2.18%	$1.23	45.00%
4908.TWO	APAC Opto Electronics Inc.	2.18%	$1.74	72.09%
601369.SS	Xi'an Shaangu Power Co., Ltd.	2.18%	$0.22	37.55%
067160.KQ	Soop Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$1,492.25	15.52%
3898.HK	Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$0.83	29.19%
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603383.SS	Fujian Apex Software Co.,LTD	2.17%	$0.78	83.82%
603568.SS	Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$0.55	34.14%
7181.T	Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd.	2.17%	$102.13	24.56%
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0QI9.L	Creades AB	2.16%	$1.59	16.64%
601233.SS	Tongkun Group Co., Ltd.	2.16%	$0.37	50.52%
605056.SS	Xianheng International Science&Technology Co., Ltd.	2.16%	$0.36	57.45%
MGIC	Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.	2.16%	$0.56	69.02%
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3727.T	Aplix Corporation	2.15%	$3.44	54.78%
603586.SS	Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd	2.15%	$0.41	51.17%
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VZUG.SW	V-ZUG Holding AG	2.15%	$0.91	19.03%
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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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