DDM Analysis: CGBD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$42.05 - $226.60	$82.52
Multi-Stage	$24.42 - $26.67	$25.53
Blended Fair Value	$54.02
Current Price	$12.50
Upside	332.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-58.69%	-19.90%	0.02	1.43	0.00	0.00	1.49	1.65	1.44	1.17	0.94	0.55
YoY Growth	-	-	-98.61%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-9.85%	14.78%	22.69%	24.25%	72.15%	199.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.12%	8.90%	0.00%	0.00%	11.27%	31.61%	9.79%	6.55%	5.21%	3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	73.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	33.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.79	9.24	5.55
Cash Retained (M)	33.22	33.22	33.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.79	-9.24	-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.43	23.97	27.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	64.90	64.90	64.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.37	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.63	0.63	0.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.37	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	7.79%	7.79%	7.79%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$42.05	$82.52	$226.60
Upside / Downside	236.42%	560.13%	1,712.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	73.94	78.75	83.87	89.32	95.13	101.31	104.35
Payout Ratio	55.08%	62.06%	69.05%	76.03%	83.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.73	48.87	57.91	67.91	78.97	91.18	96.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.79%	7.79%	7.79%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	44.92	45.34	45.77
Year 2 PV (M)	48.91	49.84	50.78
Year 3 PV (M)	52.72	54.23	55.77
Year 4 PV (M)	56.34	58.51	60.73
Year 5 PV (M)	59.78	62.67	65.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,322.14	1,386.00	1,452.31
Equity Value (M)	1,584.81	1,656.60	1,731.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	64.90	64.90	64.90
Fair Value	$24.42	$25.53	$26.67
Upside / Downside	95.36%	104.21%	113.39%

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Financial Statements

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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