DDM Analysis: BGC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.61 - $3.81	$3.19
Multi-Stage	$3.80 - $4.17	$3.98
Blended Fair Value	$3.59
Current Price	$9.46
Upside	-62.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-29.23%	-10.63%	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.13	0.40	0.48	0.41	0.50	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	96.57%	16.97%	-1.58%	-75.02%	-68.59%	-16.85%	15.66%	-16.70%	82.88%	24.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.77%	0.47%	0.59%	0.71%	2.59%	15.80%	8.67%	4.79%	6.80%	4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	165.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	126.73

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.16	20.72	12.43
Cash Retained (M)	126.73	126.73	126.73
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.16	-20.72	-12.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	93.57	106.01	114.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	483.48	483.48	483.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%
Growth Rate	-0.87%	0.13%	1.13%
Fair Value	$2.61	$3.19	$3.81
Upside / Downside	-72.43%	-66.31%	-59.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	165.79	166.01	166.22	166.43	166.64	166.85	171.86
Payout Ratio	23.56%	36.85%	50.14%	63.42%	76.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.06	61.17	83.34	105.56	127.83	150.17	158.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%
Growth Rate	-0.87%	0.13%	1.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.28	55.84	56.39
Year 2 PV (M)	68.05	69.43	70.83
Year 3 PV (M)	77.89	80.28	82.70
Year 4 PV (M)	85.25	88.74	92.34
Year 5 PV (M)	90.49	95.15	100.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,461.25	1,536.46	1,614.73
Equity Value (M)	1,838.21	1,925.89	2,016.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	483.48	483.48	483.48
Fair Value	$3.80	$3.98	$4.17
Upside / Downside	-59.81%	-57.89%	-55.90%

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BGC Group, Inc (BGC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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