DDM Analysis: 600820.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$72.60 - $157.37	$147.48
Multi-Stage	$23.77 - $26.02	$24.87
Blended Fair Value	$86.18
Current Price	$6.40
Upside	1,246.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.93%	5.31%	0.83	1.07	0.76	0.77	0.54	0.57	0.40	0.34	0.46	0.55
YoY Growth	-	-	-22.53%	41.87%	-1.76%	41.81%	-4.32%	40.31%	20.00%	-26.37%	-17.21%	11.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	13.34%	16.76%	13.28%	14.54%	9.95%	10.27%	5.36%	4.65%	4.38%	6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,551.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	973.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,577.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	510.23	318.89	191.34
Cash Retained (M)	1,577.46	1,577.46	1,577.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-510.23	-318.89	-191.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,067.23	1,258.56	1,386.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,224.02	3,224.02	3,224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.39	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.39	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.69	0.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$72.60	$147.48	$157.37
Upside / Downside	1,034.31%	2,204.33%	2,358.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,551.14	2,716.97	2,893.57	3,081.65	3,281.96	3,495.29	3,600.15
Payout Ratio	38.17%	48.53%	58.90%	69.27%	79.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	973.69	1,318.64	1,704.31	2,134.56	2,613.53	3,145.76	3,330.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,227.45	1,239.09	1,250.72
Year 2 PV (M)	1,476.76	1,504.88	1,533.28
Year 3 PV (M)	1,721.66	1,771.08	1,821.44
Year 4 PV (M)	1,962.22	2,037.68	2,115.30
Year 5 PV (M)	2,198.49	2,304.68	2,414.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	68,051.89	71,338.82	74,751.55
Equity Value (M)	76,638.46	80,196.23	83,887.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,224.02	3,224.02	3,224.02
Fair Value	$23.77	$24.87	$26.02
Upside / Downside	271.42%	288.67%	306.55%

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Financial Statements

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Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. (600820.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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