DDM Analysis: 600809.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$198.60 - $438.88	$286.05
Multi-Stage	$144.15 - $157.40	$150.66
Blended Fair Value	$218.35
Current Price	$194.01
Upside	12.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	53.29%	33.24%	4.38	3.31	1.80	0.14	0.65	0.52	0.46	0.42	0.25	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	32.66%	83.61%	1,159.96%	-77.93%	24.98%	12.70%	10.59%	66.21%	22,889.39%	-99.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.05%	1.31%	0.66%	0.06%	0.27%	0.80%	1.06%	1.06%	1.19%	0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,297.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,019.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,278.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,459.48	1,537.18	922.31
Cash Retained (M)	9,278.40	9,278.40	9,278.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,459.48	-1,537.18	-922.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,818.91	7,741.22	8,356.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,219.88	1,219.88	1,219.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.59	6.35	6.85
LTM Dividend per Share	2.47	2.47	2.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.59	6.35	6.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.06	8.82	9.32
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$198.60	$286.05	$438.88
Upside / Downside	2.37%	47.44%	126.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,297.42	13,096.75	13,948.04	14,854.66	15,820.22	16,848.53	17,353.99
Payout Ratio	24.55%	37.64%	50.73%	63.82%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,019.02	4,929.62	7,075.84	9,480.25	12,167.33	15,163.68	16,052.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,448.13	4,490.29	4,532.45
Year 2 PV (M)	5,761.10	5,870.83	5,981.60
Year 3 PV (M)	6,964.83	7,164.77	7,368.49
Year 4 PV (M)	8,065.84	8,376.03	8,695.08
Year 5 PV (M)	9,070.32	9,508.42	9,963.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	141,537.02	148,373.31	155,471.24
Equity Value (M)	175,847.24	183,783.65	192,012.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,219.88	1,219.88	1,219.88
Fair Value	$144.15	$150.66	$157.40
Upside / Downside	-25.70%	-22.35%	-18.87%

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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (600809.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener