DDM Analysis: 1133.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.60 - $90.81	$52.73
Multi-Stage	$23.46 - $25.65	$24.53
Blended Fair Value	$38.63
Current Price	$5.34
Upside	623.46%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.36%	-3.46%	0.13	0.10	0.13	0.15	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.08	0.15	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	22.64%	-20.02%	-13.33%	9.18%	76.40%	4.71%	-9.53%	-44.74%	-5.62%	-13.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.35%	5.59%	4.71%	5.22%	7.34%	3.87%	2.12%	3.02%	4.59%	5.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,226.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	440.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,786.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	645.27	403.29	241.97
Cash Retained (M)	2,786.23	2,786.23	2,786.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-645.27	-403.29	-241.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,140.97	2,382.94	2,544.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,168.72	2,168.72	2,168.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.99	1.10	1.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.99	1.10	1.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.19	1.30	1.38
WACC / Discount Rate	9.13%	9.13%	9.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$34.60	$52.73	$90.81
Upside / Downside	547.93%	887.51%	1,600.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,226.33	3,436.04	3,659.39	3,897.25	4,150.57	4,420.36	4,552.97
Payout Ratio	13.64%	28.91%	44.18%	59.46%	74.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	440.10	993.45	1,616.88	2,317.16	3,101.64	3,978.32	4,211.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.13%	9.13%	9.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	901.80	910.35	918.90
Year 2 PV (M)	1,332.31	1,357.68	1,383.30
Year 3 PV (M)	1,733.19	1,782.94	1,833.64
Year 4 PV (M)	2,105.93	2,186.92	2,270.22
Year 5 PV (M)	2,451.96	2,570.40	2,693.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	42,351.17	44,396.75	46,520.61
Equity Value (M)	50,876.35	53,205.03	55,620.02
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,168.72	2,168.72	2,168.72
Fair Value	$23.46	$24.53	$25.65
Upside / Downside	339.31%	359.42%	380.27%

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Harbin Electric Company Limited (1133.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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