DDM Analysis: 0258.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.65 - $2.17	$1.93
Multi-Stage	$3.15 - $3.49	$3.32
Blended Fair Value	$2.62
Current Price	$2.83
Upside	-7.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-38.54%	-5.27%	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.58%	-65.17%	0.00%	-50.00%	-38.89%	90.89%	0.78%	95.79%	172.66%	-35.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.50%	1.11%	3.29%	2.45%	5.34%	8.65%	3.98%	2.58%	1.73%	0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	982.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	75.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	906.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	196.46	122.78	73.67
Cash Retained (M)	906.76	906.76	906.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-196.46	-122.78	-73.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	710.30	783.97	833.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,114.27	2,114.27	2,114.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.37	0.39
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.37	0.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	-10.61%	-9.61%	-8.61%
Fair Value	$1.65	$1.93	$2.17
Upside / Downside	-41.53%	-31.95%	-23.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	982.28	887.89	802.58	725.46	655.76	592.75	610.53
Payout Ratio	7.69%	24.15%	40.61%	57.08%	73.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	75.52	214.43	325.95	414.06	482.23	533.47	564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.47%	9.47%	9.47%
Growth Rate	-10.61%	-9.61%	-8.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	193.71	195.88	198.05
Year 2 PV (M)	266.00	271.99	278.04
Year 3 PV (M)	305.26	315.62	326.21
Year 4 PV (M)	321.16	335.77	350.88
Year 5 PV (M)	320.96	339.31	358.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,250.05	5,550.35	5,864.24
Equity Value (M)	6,657.14	7,008.92	7,375.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,114.27	2,114.27	2,114.27
Fair Value	$3.15	$3.32	$3.49
Upside / Downside	11.26%	17.14%	23.27%

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Financial Statements

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Tomson Group Limited (0258.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener