DDM Analysis: 000728.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$105.04 - $123.76	$115.98
Multi-Stage	$28.85 - $31.61	$30.20
Blended Fair Value	$73.09
Current Price	$9.13
Upside	700.56%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.43%	14.44%	0.39	0.38	0.39	0.37	0.30	0.38	0.33	0.36	0.33	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	2.42%	-4.08%	5.52%	26.03%	-21.82%	15.03%	-7.91%	8.95%	155.43%	27.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.99%	5.68%	5.84%	5.23%	3.85%	5.13%	3.50%	4.40%	2.71%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,689.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,411.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,277.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	537.85	336.16	201.69
Cash Retained (M)	1,277.52	1,277.52	1,277.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-537.85	-336.16	-201.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	739.67	941.36	1,075.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,321.57	4,321.57	4,321.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.22	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.22	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.54	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$105.04	$115.98	$123.76
Upside / Downside	1,050.51%	1,170.30%	1,255.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,689.25	2,864.05	3,050.21	3,248.47	3,459.63	3,684.50	3,795.04
Payout Ratio	52.50%	60.00%	67.50%	75.00%	82.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,411.73	1,718.32	2,058.81	2,436.30	2,854.16	3,316.05	3,510.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,617.09	1,632.42	1,647.74
Year 2 PV (M)	1,823.37	1,858.10	1,893.15
Year 3 PV (M)	2,030.56	2,088.85	2,148.25
Year 4 PV (M)	2,238.69	2,324.78	2,413.33
Year 5 PV (M)	2,447.74	2,565.97	2,688.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	114,524.22	120,055.79	125,799.05
Equity Value (M)	124,681.67	130,525.90	136,590.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,321.57	4,321.57	4,321.57
Fair Value	$28.85	$30.20	$31.61
Upside / Downside	216.00%	230.81%	246.18%

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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (000728.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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