Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

NARI Technology Co., Ltd. (600406.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.76 - $39.70$26.61
Multi-Stage$14.42 - $15.71$15.05
Blended Fair Value$20.83
Current Price$22.96
Upside-9.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.03%34.95%0.680.330.290.250.180.270.310.320.080.05
YoY Growth--104.79%13.45%16.53%43.25%-35.76%-12.33%-1.13%283.04%59.75%51.61%
Dividend Yield--3.11%1.36%1.30%1.15%0.97%2.39%2.48%3.24%0.88%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,992.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,526.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,466.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,598.52999.08599.45
Cash Retained (M)3,466.413,466.413,466.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,598.52-999.08-599.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,867.892,467.332,866.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,973.937,973.937,973.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.310.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.310.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.76$26.61$39.70
Upside / Downside-18.31%15.88%72.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,992.618,512.139,065.429,654.6810,282.2310,950.5711,279.09
Payout Ratio56.63%63.30%69.98%76.65%83.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,526.215,388.516,343.797,400.508,567.779,855.5210,433.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,852.184,898.184,944.17
Year 2 PV (M)5,143.825,241.805,340.70
Year 3 PV (M)5,403.395,558.505,716.55
Year 4 PV (M)5,633.025,849.656,072.47
Year 5 PV (M)5,834.746,116.566,409.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,105.9492,361.4996,779.91
Equity Value (M)114,973.10120,026.18125,262.97
Shares Outstanding (M)7,973.937,973.937,973.93
Fair Value$14.42$15.05$15.71
Upside / Downside-37.20%-34.44%-31.58%

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