Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

POYA International Co., Ltd. (5904.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,604.82 - $5,425.25$5,084.26
Multi-Stage$47,980.56 - $52,686.75$50,289.58
Blended Fair Value$27,686.92
Current Price$497.03
Upside5,470.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.15%17.16%20.5023.0310.4617.2315.7514.5111.989.747.916.57
YoY Growth---11.01%120.12%-39.26%9.36%8.57%21.15%23.02%23.12%20.39%56.17%
Dividend Yield--4.33%4.77%1.89%4.61%2.83%3.63%3.52%2.83%2.40%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,892.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,173.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)719.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)578.49361.55216.93
Cash Retained (M)719.08719.08719.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-578.49-361.55-216.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.59357.52502.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.03106.03106.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.333.374.74
LTM Dividend per Share20.5020.5020.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.333.374.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.8223.8725.23
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,604.82$5,084.26$5,425.25
Upside / Downside826.47%922.93%991.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,892.433,080.443,280.663,493.913,721.013,962.884,081.76
Payout Ratio75.14%78.11%81.08%84.06%87.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,173.352,406.172,660.082,936.833,238.323,566.593,775.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,032.164,070.384,108.60
Year 2 PV (M)7,469.917,612.197,755.82
Year 3 PV (M)13,820.0614,216.7814,621.03
Year 4 PV (M)25,536.4626,518.5227,528.64
Year 5 PV (M)47,130.8049,407.2451,770.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,989,319.115,230,305.095,480,514.17
Equity Value (M)5,087,308.515,332,130.215,586,299.05
Shares Outstanding (M)106.03106.03106.03
Fair Value$47,980.56$50,289.58$52,686.75
Upside / Downside9,553.45%10,018.02%10,500.32%

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