Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Seiren Co.,Ltd. (3569.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,170.03 - $11,665.54$7,500.34
Multi-Stage$3,734.82 - $4,077.97$3,903.30
Blended Fair Value$5,701.82
Current Price$3,050.00
Upside86.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.25%13.37%58.4641.7339.0332.6833.8135.8830.3433.3725.2722.24
YoY Growth--40.06%6.94%19.42%-3.35%-5.75%18.24%-9.08%32.08%13.62%33.40%
Dividend Yield--2.51%1.73%1.59%1.62%1.54%2.64%1.96%1.93%1.43%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,149.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,022.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,127.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,029.801,893.631,136.18
Cash Retained (M)11,127.0011,127.0011,127.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,029.80-1,893.63-1,136.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,097.209,233.389,990.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.0959.0959.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share137.04156.27169.09
LTM Dividend per Share68.0768.0768.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share137.04156.27169.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend205.11224.34237.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,170.03$7,500.34$11,665.54
Upside / Downside69.51%145.91%282.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,149.0016,133.6917,182.3718,299.2319,488.6820,755.4421,378.11
Payout Ratio26.55%39.24%51.93%64.62%77.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,022.006,330.818,922.7711,824.9315,066.6818,679.9019,774.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,717.595,771.795,825.98
Year 2 PV (M)7,277.927,416.557,556.48
Year 3 PV (M)8,710.858,960.919,215.70
Year 4 PV (M)10,023.8210,409.3110,805.81
Year 5 PV (M)11,223.9111,766.0312,328.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)177,726.28186,310.53195,223.31
Equity Value (M)220,680.38230,635.10240,956.18
Shares Outstanding (M)59.0959.0959.09
Fair Value$3,734.82$3,903.30$4,077.97
Upside / Downside22.45%27.98%33.70%

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