Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Moody's Corporation (0K36.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$469.25 - $2,465.27$939.49
Multi-Stage$263.23 - $287.85$275.32
Blended Fair Value$607.41
Current Price$476.48
Upside27.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.40%10.14%3.423.122.842.562.322.091.861.601.571.50
YoY Growth--9.93%9.51%11.23%10.24%11.11%12.10%16.12%1.86%4.78%15.30%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.79%0.93%0.76%0.78%0.99%1.01%0.99%1.41%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,244.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)689.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,555.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)448.80280.50168.30
Cash Retained (M)1,555.001,555.001,555.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-448.80-280.50-168.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,106.201,274.501,386.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)181.03181.03181.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.117.047.66
LTM Dividend per Share3.813.813.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.117.047.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.9210.8511.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$469.25$939.49$2,465.27
Upside / Downside-1.52%97.17%417.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,244.002,389.862,545.202,710.642,886.833,074.473,166.71
Payout Ratio30.70%42.56%54.42%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)689.001,017.201,385.161,796.662,255.792,767.032,929.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)935.35944.22953.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,171.211,193.521,216.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,396.911,437.011,477.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,612.771,674.791,738.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,819.091,906.951,998.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,716.3942,683.0044,724.89
Equity Value (M)47,651.7249,839.4952,108.64
Shares Outstanding (M)181.03181.03181.03
Fair Value$263.23$275.32$287.85
Upside / Downside-44.75%-42.22%-39.59%

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