Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.17 - $217.74$141.58
Multi-Stage$101.32 - $110.84$105.99
Blended Fair Value$123.79
Current Price$152.00
Upside-18.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.03%1.18%2.662.402.302.092.001.811.631.472.632.58
YoY Growth--10.91%4.47%9.63%4.59%10.76%10.61%11.06%-44.09%1.92%9.12%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.71%1.74%1.77%1.85%2.64%1.62%1.73%4.12%4.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,432.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)653.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.40179.00107.40
Cash Retained (M)653.00653.00653.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.40-179.00-107.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)366.60474.00545.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.054.434.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Fair Value$98.17$141.58$217.74
Upside / Downside-35.42%-6.85%43.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,432.001,495.031,560.831,629.531,701.251,776.131,829.41
Payout Ratio54.40%61.52%68.64%75.76%82.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.00919.731,071.351,234.531,409.991,598.511,692.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)846.04854.22862.41
Year 2 PV (M)906.54924.16941.95
Year 3 PV (M)960.92989.071,017.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,009.561,049.191,089.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,052.841,104.751,158.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,871.0125,047.8426,270.64
Equity Value (M)28,646.9229,969.2431,341.41
Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
Fair Value$101.32$105.99$110.84
Upside / Downside-33.35%-30.27%-27.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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