Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Compass Group PLC (XGR2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.55 - $287.56$269.49
Multi-Stage$38.75 - $42.36$40.52
Blended Fair Value$155.01
Current Price$25.71
Upside502.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%8.05%0.560.460.270.000.320.440.421.200.380.40
YoY Growth--21.80%69.38%0.00%-100.00%-26.86%5.19%-65.26%217.98%-6.68%55.98%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.28%1.49%0.00%2.74%2.19%2.08%6.02%1.93%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,475.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,526.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)948.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)495.16309.48185.69
Cash Retained (M)948.94948.94948.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-495.16-309.48-185.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.78639.46763.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.55$269.49$287.56
Upside / Downside244.42%948.19%1,018.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,475.822,636.752,808.142,990.673,185.063,392.093,493.86
Payout Ratio61.67%67.34%73.00%78.67%84.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,526.881,775.522,050.032,352.722,686.103,052.883,231.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,645.661,661.251,676.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.111,794.661,828.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,873.321,927.101,981.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,982.342,058.572,136.99
Year 5 PV (M)2,088.242,189.102,293.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,001.8559,755.0662,613.64
Equity Value (M)66,352.5169,385.7472,531.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
Fair Value$38.75$40.52$42.36
Upside / Downside50.73%57.62%64.76%

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