Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Waterstone Financial, Inc. (WSBF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.90 - $14.48$12.10
Multi-Stage$19.98 - $21.98$20.96
Blended Fair Value$16.53
Current Price$15.60
Upside5.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.37%8.46%0.620.851.671.671.741.431.491.480.380.32
YoY Growth---26.65%-49.23%-0.42%-3.59%21.42%-4.03%0.36%289.65%17.86%17.31%
Dividend Yield--4.61%7.07%11.01%8.65%8.50%9.83%9.00%8.58%2.09%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.782.991.79
Cash Retained (M)13.0113.0113.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.78-2.99-1.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.2310.0211.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.1718.1718.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.550.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.550.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-2.77%-1.77%-0.77%
Fair Value$9.90$12.10$14.48
Upside / Downside-36.57%-22.41%-7.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.9023.4823.0622.6522.2521.8622.52
Payout Ratio45.57%54.46%63.34%72.23%81.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8912.7814.6116.3618.0519.6720.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-2.77%-1.77%-0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7611.8812.01
Year 2 PV (M)12.3712.6212.88
Year 3 PV (M)12.7513.1413.55
Year 4 PV (M)12.9413.4814.04
Year 5 PV (M)12.9813.6614.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)300.26316.02332.43
Equity Value (M)363.05380.80399.27
Shares Outstanding (M)18.1718.1718.17
Fair Value$19.98$20.96$21.98
Upside / Downside28.11%34.37%40.89%

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