Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Wabash National Corporation (WNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.66 - $59.62$50.46
Multi-Stage$63.59 - $69.95$66.70
Blended Fair Value$58.58
Current Price$9.87
Upside493.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.65%0.00%0.340.370.370.380.400.410.410.360.000.00
YoY Growth---6.82%-0.99%-2.53%-5.13%-2.66%0.16%16.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.11%1.27%1.52%2.58%2.14%5.74%2.96%1.71%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)260.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.0732.5419.53
Cash Retained (M)246.34246.34246.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.07-32.54-19.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)194.27213.79226.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.9842.9842.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.524.975.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.524.975.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.855.305.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$41.66$50.46$59.62
Upside / Downside322.12%411.25%504.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)260.35257.74255.17252.61250.09247.59255.02
Payout Ratio5.38%22.30%39.23%56.15%73.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0157.49100.10141.85182.75222.83235.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)52.0252.5553.08
Year 2 PV (M)81.9683.6485.34
Year 3 PV (M)105.09108.34111.66
Year 4 PV (M)122.51127.59132.82
Year 5 PV (M)135.16142.20149.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,236.152,352.592,473.84
Equity Value (M)2,732.902,866.913,006.27
Shares Outstanding (M)42.9842.9842.98
Fair Value$63.59$66.70$69.95
Upside / Downside544.24%575.83%608.68%

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