Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.54 - $213.30$146.34
Multi-Stage$76.74 - $83.84$80.23
Blended Fair Value$113.29
Current Price$138.70
Upside-18.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.60%20.25%0.640.560.510.470.391.180.330.240.220.21
YoY Growth--13.05%11.06%6.99%20.66%-66.69%252.33%41.51%9.86%3.57%106.38%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.36%0.45%0.53%0.34%2.39%1.03%0.83%1.07%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)458.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)405.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.6757.2934.37
Cash Retained (M)405.42405.42405.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.67-57.29-34.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.76348.13371.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.695.135.42
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.54$146.34$213.30
Upside / Downside-24.63%5.51%53.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)458.33488.12519.85553.64589.62627.95646.79
Payout Ratio11.54%27.23%42.93%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.91132.94223.15324.53438.14565.15598.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.46120.60121.73
Year 2 PV (M)180.21183.64187.11
Year 3 PV (M)235.52242.28249.17
Year 4 PV (M)285.75296.73308.04
Year 5 PV (M)331.23347.22363.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,847.825,081.975,325.08
Equity Value (M)5,999.986,272.456,554.96
Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
Fair Value$76.74$80.23$83.84
Upside / Downside-44.67%-42.16%-39.55%

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