Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.35 - $14.50$11.73
Multi-Stage$14.26 - $15.61$14.92
Blended Fair Value$13.33
Current Price$34.06
Upside-60.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.17%0.00%0.600.570.530.500.420.540.151.450.130.00
YoY Growth--6.09%6.18%6.92%20.00%-22.97%265.96%-89.84%1,001.19%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.83%1.49%1.43%0.96%1.42%0.49%4.82%0.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)621.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)238.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.2077.6346.58
Cash Retained (M)238.00238.00238.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.20-77.63-46.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.80160.38191.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)636.57636.57636.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.250.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.250.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Fair Value$9.35$11.73$14.50
Upside / Downside-72.54%-65.55%-57.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)621.00628.27635.63643.07650.61658.22677.97
Payout Ratio61.67%67.34%73.00%78.67%84.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.00423.08464.04505.91548.69592.40627.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)385.97389.82393.67
Year 2 PV (M)386.21393.96401.78
Year 3 PV (M)384.12395.74407.59
Year 4 PV (M)380.06395.47411.33
Year 5 PV (M)374.35393.41413.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,164.827,529.667,909.21
Equity Value (M)9,075.529,498.059,936.83
Shares Outstanding (M)636.57636.57636.57
Fair Value$14.26$14.92$15.61
Upside / Downside-58.14%-56.19%-54.17%

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