Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Winmark Corporation (WINA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.92 - $240.24$184.02
Multi-Stage$193.79 - $211.66$202.56
Blended Fair Value$193.29
Current Price$502.49
Upside-61.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.32%3.74%10.5711.885.249.023.870.940.590.480.420.33
YoY Growth---10.99%126.73%-41.93%133.03%312.59%58.95%22.94%15.60%24.31%-95.44%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.28%1.63%3.99%2.08%0.71%0.31%0.37%0.37%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.265.163.10
Cash Retained (M)1.551.551.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.26-5.16-3.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.70-3.61-1.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
LTM Dividend per Share10.8010.8010.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.989.8210.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$140.92$184.02$240.24
Upside / Downside-71.96%-63.38%-52.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2842.4143.5744.7645.9847.2448.66
Payout Ratio96.24%94.99%93.74%92.50%91.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.7340.2840.8441.4041.9642.5245.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8637.2237.59
Year 2 PV (M)34.2034.8735.55
Year 3 PV (M)31.7232.6633.63
Year 4 PV (M)29.4230.5931.80
Year 5 PV (M)27.2828.6430.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)553.04580.76609.58
Equity Value (M)712.52744.76778.22
Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
Fair Value$193.79$202.56$211.66
Upside / Downside-61.43%-59.69%-57.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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