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Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.54 - $109.40$77.60
Multi-Stage$50.59 - $55.08$52.80
Blended Fair Value$65.20
Current Price$83.62
Upside-22.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.92%0.00%2.662.552.411.931.361.120.940.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.48%5.85%24.35%42.12%21.67%18.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.58%3.16%1.49%1.32%2.78%1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0014.378.62
Cash Retained (M)23.8223.8223.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.00-14.37-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.829.4415.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.3233.3233.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.280.46
LTM Dividend per Share2.742.742.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.280.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.763.023.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Fair Value$56.54$77.60$109.40
Upside / Downside-32.39%-7.20%30.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.99121.60128.58135.97143.77152.03156.59
Payout Ratio79.29%81.43%83.57%85.72%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.1899.02107.46116.54126.32136.83144.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Year 1 PV (M)89.2890.1390.99
Year 2 PV (M)87.3689.0490.73
Year 3 PV (M)85.4387.9090.42
Year 4 PV (M)83.4986.7290.05
Year 5 PV (M)81.5485.5189.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,258.791,320.041,383.65
Equity Value (M)1,685.901,759.351,835.47
Shares Outstanding (M)33.3233.3233.32
Fair Value$50.59$52.80$55.08
Upside / Downside-39.49%-36.86%-34.13%

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