Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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WaFd, Inc. (WAFD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.15 - $46.21$36.92
Multi-Stage$39.88 - $43.70$41.75
Blended Fair Value$39.34
Current Price$30.29
Upside29.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.94%5.17%1.050.930.790.770.820.830.790.700.930.62
YoY Growth--13.97%16.42%3.60%-6.53%-0.93%5.02%13.07%-24.86%49.26%-2.32%
Dividend Yield--3.48%2.87%2.41%2.29%2.46%3.22%2.15%2.61%2.71%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)226.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.2128.2616.96
Cash Retained (M)141.43141.43141.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.21-28.26-16.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.22113.17124.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.2480.2480.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.201.411.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.201.411.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.252.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate0.93%1.93%2.93%
Fair Value$29.15$36.92$46.21
Upside / Downside-3.78%21.90%52.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)226.07230.43234.88239.42244.04248.75256.22
Payout Ratio37.44%47.95%58.46%68.98%79.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.64110.50137.32165.14193.98223.88237.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate0.93%1.93%2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)100.62101.62102.62
Year 2 PV (M)113.87116.14118.43
Year 3 PV (M)124.71128.45132.27
Year 4 PV (M)133.40138.76144.29
Year 5 PV (M)140.20147.28154.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,587.352,718.092,854.06
Equity Value (M)3,200.153,350.343,506.31
Shares Outstanding (M)80.2480.2480.24
Fair Value$39.88$41.75$43.70
Upside / Downside31.66%37.84%44.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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