Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volkswagen AG (VOW.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.47 - $656.00$416.76
Multi-Stage$311.51 - $340.94$325.95
Blended Fair Value$371.35
Current Price$91.96
Upside303.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.79%11.41%11.5323.408.705.975.895.784.742.660.735.02
YoY Growth---50.74%168.96%45.69%1.42%1.83%22.06%78.30%265.93%-85.53%28.24%
Dividend Yield--12.32%19.07%6.93%3.80%2.47%5.41%3.28%1.65%0.53%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,121.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,412.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,709.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,424.20890.13534.08
Cash Retained (M)2,709.002,709.002,709.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,424.20-890.13-534.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,284.801,818.882,174.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
LTM Dividend per Share8.808.808.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3612.4313.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$285.47$416.76$656.00
Upside / Downside210.43%353.19%613.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,121.007,416.147,723.518,043.628,376.998,724.198,985.91
Payout Ratio61.96%67.57%73.17%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,412.005,010.795,651.646,337.017,069.477,851.778,311.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)4,627.184,672.044,716.90
Year 2 PV (M)4,819.414,913.325,008.12
Year 3 PV (M)4,990.155,136.705,286.09
Year 4 PV (M)5,140.745,343.025,551.21
Year 5 PV (M)5,272.505,533.095,803.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,309.45137,799.39144,543.43
Equity Value (M)156,159.43163,397.55170,909.65
Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
Fair Value$311.51$325.95$340.94
Upside / Downside238.75%254.45%270.74%

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