Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.38 - $146.35$103.60
Multi-Stage$70.91 - $77.47$74.13
Blended Fair Value$88.86
Current Price$48.33
Upside83.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.82%6.00%1.981.911.781.651.641.571.341.241.161.14
YoY Growth--4.11%6.99%7.64%1.06%4.46%16.78%8.51%6.52%1.86%2.95%
Dividend Yield--4.70%4.33%4.94%3.11%2.96%4.55%2.73%2.45%2.25%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,188.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,140.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,048.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,437.60898.50539.10
Cash Retained (M)4,048.004,048.004,048.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,437.60-898.50-539.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,610.403,149.503,508.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,559.001,559.001,559.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.672.022.25
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.672.022.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.694.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$75.38$103.60$146.35
Upside / Downside55.97%114.35%202.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,188.007,547.657,925.298,321.828,738.209,175.419,450.67
Payout Ratio43.68%52.95%62.21%71.47%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,140.003,996.264,930.355,947.907,054.948,257.868,741.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,628.303,663.183,698.07
Year 2 PV (M)4,064.204,142.744,222.02
Year 3 PV (M)4,451.554,581.194,713.33
Year 4 PV (M)4,793.904,980.955,173.43
Year 5 PV (M)5,094.635,344.315,603.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,521.5092,859.8397,366.61
Equity Value (M)110,554.08115,572.20120,777.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,559.001,559.001,559.00
Fair Value$70.91$74.13$77.47
Upside / Downside46.73%53.39%60.30%

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