Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$212,633.53 - $844,097.38$577,654.96
Multi-Stage$104,255.83 - $113,972.53$109,025.54
Blended Fair Value$343,340.25
Current Price$26,775.00
Upside1,182.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.99%15.07%2,235.276,883.971,752.66829.661,002.111,269.081,002.11693.06598.60817.30
YoY Growth---67.53%292.77%111.25%-17.21%-21.04%26.64%44.59%15.78%-26.76%48.78%
Dividend Yield--9.49%28.65%6.02%3.25%4.53%7.51%3.68%2.17%2.26%5.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,414,710.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,808,837.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,605,873.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,082,942.001,926,838.751,156,103.25
Cash Retained (M)7,605,873.007,605,873.007,605,873.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,082,942.00-1,926,838.75-1,156,103.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,522,931.005,679,034.256,449,769.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,631.813,631.813,631.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,245.371,563.691,775.91
LTM Dividend per Share2,150.122,150.122,150.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,245.371,563.691,775.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,395.493,713.823,926.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$212,633.53$577,654.96$844,097.38
Upside / Downside694.15%2,057.44%3,052.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,414,710.0016,416,666.1517,483,749.4518,620,193.1619,830,505.7221,119,488.5921,753,073.25
Payout Ratio50.66%58.53%66.40%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,808,837.009,608,129.0311,608,336.6913,827,977.0016,287,125.3319,007,539.7320,121,592.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,879,916.348,964,086.179,048,255.99
Year 2 PV (M)9,915,396.6310,104,257.0810,294,899.24
Year 3 PV (M)10,916,132.3211,229,495.2511,548,798.53
Year 4 PV (M)11,882,959.8212,339,944.9212,809,985.76
Year 5 PV (M)12,816,697.8113,435,749.1114,078,492.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)324,226,173.43339,886,418.84356,146,018.71
Equity Value (M)378,637,276.35395,959,951.36413,926,451.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3,631.813,631.813,631.81
Fair Value$104,255.83$109,025.54$113,972.53
Upside / Downside289.38%307.19%325.67%

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