Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.57 - $199.40$158.46
Multi-Stage$184.71 - $202.47$193.42
Blended Fair Value$175.94
Current Price$236.37
Upside-25.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.34%7.01%5.365.295.274.674.384.333.833.313.133.91
YoY Growth--1.26%0.44%12.82%6.63%1.08%13.01%15.99%5.48%-19.84%43.63%
Dividend Yield--2.27%2.17%2.62%1.71%1.99%3.07%2.24%2.46%2.96%4.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,052.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,824.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,410.40881.50528.90
Cash Retained (M)3,824.003,824.003,824.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,410.40-881.50-528.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,413.602,942.503,295.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.63599.63599.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.034.915.50
LTM Dividend per Share5.385.385.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.034.915.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4110.2910.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate0.56%1.56%2.56%
Fair Value$124.57$158.46$199.40
Upside / Downside-47.30%-32.96%-15.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,052.007,162.167,274.047,387.677,503.077,620.287,848.89
Payout Ratio45.77%54.62%63.46%72.31%81.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,228.003,911.934,616.445,342.006,089.116,858.257,260.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate0.56%1.56%2.56%
Year 1 PV (M)3,581.273,616.883,652.49
Year 2 PV (M)3,869.003,946.334,024.43
Year 3 PV (M)4,098.664,222.154,348.10
Year 4 PV (M)4,276.984,449.664,627.51
Year 5 PV (M)4,410.044,633.724,866.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,518.3795,109.3999,884.84
Equity Value (M)110,754.32115,978.13121,403.74
Shares Outstanding (M)599.63599.63599.63
Fair Value$184.71$193.42$202.47
Upside / Downside-21.86%-18.17%-14.34%

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