Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Unum Group (UNM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.63 - $168.32$118.24
Multi-Stage$88.71 - $97.10$92.83
Blended Fair Value$105.53
Current Price$77.78
Upside35.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.28%6.40%1.681.571.441.361.311.301.221.111.040.99
YoY Growth--7.00%9.01%6.18%3.23%1.18%6.31%10.00%7.34%4.82%9.28%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.92%3.64%4.31%4.72%8.66%3.52%2.33%2.21%3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)913.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.62114.1468.48
Cash Retained (M)607.00607.00607.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.62-114.14-68.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.38492.86538.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.39176.39176.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.793.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.741.741.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.793.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.534.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$85.63$118.24$168.32
Upside / Downside10.09%52.01%116.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)913.10952.22993.011,035.551,079.911,126.171,159.96
Payout Ratio33.52%44.82%56.11%67.41%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.10426.77557.22698.06849.941,013.561,072.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)390.36394.14397.92
Year 2 PV (M)466.19475.26484.42
Year 3 PV (M)534.20549.87565.84
Year 4 PV (M)594.94618.32642.38
Year 5 PV (M)648.94680.97714.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,013.2513,655.5414,322.94
Equity Value (M)15,647.8716,374.0917,127.75
Shares Outstanding (M)176.39176.39176.39
Fair Value$88.71$92.83$97.10
Upside / Downside14.06%19.35%24.84%

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