Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.24 - $35.17$28.15
Multi-Stage$56.60 - $62.35$59.42
Blended Fair Value$43.78
Current Price$27.48
Upside59.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-1.42%0.00%0.500.500.430.420.150.540.530.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.43%16.42%1.66%177.39%-71.76%2.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.94%1.91%1.70%0.61%2.15%2.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,867.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,285.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)830.40519.00311.40
Cash Retained (M)2,285.002,285.002,285.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-830.40-519.00-311.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,454.601,766.001,973.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.891,858.891,858.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.951.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.951.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.952.07
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.24$28.15$35.17
Upside / Downside-19.07%2.42%27.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,152.004,110.484,069.384,028.683,988.393,948.514,066.97
Payout Ratio44.97%53.97%62.98%71.99%80.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,867.002,218.552,562.882,900.113,230.333,553.663,761.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,074.292,095.462,116.62
Year 2 PV (M)2,240.422,286.382,332.80
Year 3 PV (M)2,370.362,443.672,518.47
Year 4 PV (M)2,468.592,570.902,676.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,539.092,671.302,808.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,515.2498,384.80103,455.13
Equity Value (M)105,207.99110,452.50115,908.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.891,858.891,858.89
Fair Value$56.60$59.42$62.35
Upside / Downside105.96%116.22%126.91%

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