Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.18 - $155.27$91.24
Multi-Stage$42.14 - $46.01$44.04
Blended Fair Value$67.64
Current Price$31.35
Upside115.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.19%51.10%0.930.870.720.550.490.440.340.220.130.12
YoY Growth--6.88%20.95%29.84%13.58%11.06%27.41%58.85%65.37%6.93%718.90%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.44%2.55%1.59%1.43%2.40%1.33%0.68%0.47%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.5039.6923.81
Cash Retained (M)200.78200.78200.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.50-39.69-23.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.28161.09176.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.96120.96120.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.302.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.18$91.24$155.27
Upside / Downside91.97%191.02%395.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.50338.14360.12383.52408.45435.00448.05
Payout Ratio36.76%47.41%58.06%68.71%79.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.72160.31209.08263.50324.12391.50414.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.45146.83148.21
Year 2 PV (M)172.11175.39178.70
Year 3 PV (M)196.81202.46208.22
Year 4 PV (M)219.65228.09236.78
Year 5 PV (M)240.72252.35264.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,122.784,321.914,528.66
Equity Value (M)5,097.525,327.045,564.99
Shares Outstanding (M)120.96120.96120.96
Fair Value$42.14$44.04$46.01
Upside / Downside34.43%40.48%46.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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