Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.04 - $377.26$134.05
Multi-Stage$54.22 - $59.30$56.71
Blended Fair Value$95.38
Current Price$56.55
Upside68.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.59%0.00%1.521.371.301.221.071.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.76%5.73%6.08%14.69%6.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.84%3.67%2.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4922.1813.31
Cash Retained (M)23.5123.5123.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.49-22.18-13.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.981.3310.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.4392.4392.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.010.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.010.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.22%5.22%6.22%
Fair Value$69.04$134.05$377.26
Upside / Downside22.08%137.05%567.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.45186.72196.48206.74217.54228.91235.77
Payout Ratio86.75%87.40%88.05%88.70%89.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.94163.20173.00183.38194.37206.02218.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.22%5.22%6.22%
Year 1 PV (M)151.72153.17154.63
Year 2 PV (M)149.52152.40155.31
Year 3 PV (M)147.35151.63155.99
Year 4 PV (M)145.19150.85156.66
Year 5 PV (M)143.07150.06157.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,274.884,483.934,701.09
Equity Value (M)5,011.735,242.055,481.02
Shares Outstanding (M)92.4392.4392.43
Fair Value$54.22$56.71$59.30
Upside / Downside-4.12%0.28%4.86%

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